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India finds itself grappling with the need to rapidly expand its power capacity amidst global discussions on transitioning away from fossil fuels at COP28 in Dubai.
In a bid to meet growing demand and avoid power shortages, the Indian government intends to double coal production by 2030, reaching 1.5 billion tonnes, Bloomberg reported. Furthermore, plans were unveiled to add 88 GW of thermal power plants, primarily coal-based, by 2032.
This emphasis on coal, despite India's vulnerability to climate impacts, may appear contradictory.
The country has experienced record heatwaves and a surge in electricity demand over the past two years. To address the situation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing to combine renewables development with increased reliance on coal and other fossil fuels. The rationale behind this is to meet the growing power demand comprehensively.
However, India's progress in renewable energy deployment has been insufficient to achieve its ambitious target of 500 GW of clean-energy capacity by 2030. The installation rates of solar and wind power have fallen significantly short of the required levels, according to BloombergNEF.
Challenges such as misaligned incentives among state-owned electricity retailers, difficulties in land acquisition, and inconsistent policies at the federal and state levels have hindered renewable investments. Consequently, private investors remain hesitant to accelerate their involvement in renewable projects.
At the same time, the coal sector faces its own challenges in attracting new investments. Solar and wind power plants can be built more quickly and at lower costs compared to coal-fired plants, said Vibhuti Garg, South Asia director for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
Experts doubt that India will achieve its coal targets. BloombergNEF's economic-transition scenario predicts India's coal use to peak at 1.1 billion tonnes before 2040.
India, along with other major developing countries, requires greater incentives to choose a greener path. The Just Energy Transition Partnership, initiated by the Group of Seven nations, aims to support countries like South Africa, Vietnam, and Indonesia in reducing coal use. However, these efforts have encountered challenges and have yet to yield significant results.
While the international community acknowledges the need to transition away from fossil fuels, effective support to help countries like India replace coal are lacking.
Environment minister Bhupendra Yadav emphasized the importance of offering more than just financial aid, suggesting that better policies, technology transfer, and skills training are also crucial.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Emma Yang)
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