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Global coal consumption is projected to reach an all-time high in 2023, driven by strong demand in emerging and developing economies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The latest annual coal market report by the IEA states that coal usage in 2023 is expected to increase 1.4% to over 8.5 billion tonnes for the first time.
India's coal demand is predicted to grow 8%, while China's demand to rise 5% due to increased electricity needs and weak hydropower output.
However, the report has predicted a drop in global coal consumption over its forecast period for the first time.
Coal use is expected to decline by 2.3% by 2026 compared to 2023 levels, despite the absence of stronger clean energy policies. This decline is attributed to the significant expansion of renewable energy capacity over the next three years.
China, which currently accounts for over half of world's coal demand, is projected to experience a decrease in coal consumption starting in 2024, with demand stabilizing through 2026.
The pace of clean energy deployment, weather conditions, and shifts in the Chinese economy will significantly influence the outlook for coal in China, the IEA said.
It is noteworthy that global coal consumption is still expected to remain well above 8 billion tonnes throughout 2026.
To align with the goals of the Paris Agreement, a faster reduction in unabated coal usage is necessary. The report suggests that the decline in global coal demand could mark a historic turning point, as previous declines were typically short-lived and driven by extraordinary events.
The shift in coal demand and production towards Asia is accelerating, with China, India, and Southeast Asia representing three-quarters of global coal consumption in 2023, compared to only one-quarter in 1990.
Southeast Asia's consumption is expected to surpass that of the United States and the European Union for the first time in 2023.
Coal usage is predicted to continue the rapid increase in India and Southeast Asia through 2026, while advanced economies will witness a structural decline due to renewable energy expansion and weak electricity demand growth.
China, India, and Indonesia, the three largest coal producers globally, are projected to achieve record output in 2023, contributing to a new global production high. Global coal trade is expected to contract as demand decreases in the coming years, but trade volumes are set to reach a new peak in 2023, driven by robust growth in Asia.
China's coal imports are estimated to reach 450 million tonnes, surpassing the country's previous record in 2013, the IEA said, while Indonesia's coal exports in 2023 are expected to near 500 million tonnes, also a global record.
The IEA's forecast for China's coal imports could be sort of conservative, as the Chinese customs data showed the country had already imported 427.14 million tonnes of coal in the first 11 months, with November's imports at 43.51 million tonnes.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Harry Huo)
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