Russia's coal exports are expected to plummet by 30% by 2030 compared to 2021, unless massive investments are put into railway infrastructure development and import replacement of critical technologies, according to a forecast by the Russian Energy Ministry.

The ministry warns that Russia risks losing significant markets with a total volume of 64 million tonnes. The figure would be even larger, as it does not include the markets of Japan, South Korea and China's Taiwan, where Russian supplies are likely to be replaced by cargoes from Australia, Indonesia, the U.S., South Africa and Colombia.

The only chance to prevent this decline is by enhancing coal delivery to seaports in the Far East through the expansion of the Eastern Polygon, a Siberian railway system consisting of the Baikal Amur mainline and trans-Siberian railway, the ministry said.

Additionally, substantial investments are deemed essential to replace critical western technologies that are currently inaccessible to Russian coal miners due to sanctions.

The ministry estimated that meeting these goals will require up to 1.2 trillion rubles ($14 billion).

Despite Russia's efforts to diversify coal exports, challenges such as logistics, freight, and insurance are impeding supplies to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, according to Maxim Basov, general manager of Russian coal producer SUEK.

Accessing new markets may also demand offering coal at a considerable discount, with discounts in the Asia-Pacific and Africa regions reaching up to 67% to 73% of regional benchmarks, according to local newspaper Vedomosti, citing a source in the Russian coal industry.

(Writing by Emma Yang  Editing by Harry Huo)
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