Germany is not expected to fully phase out coal until the end of 2038 according to new projections, challenging the coalition government's commitment to retire coal by the end of the decade.

Nearby 19 GW of coal will still be part of German energy system by 2030, according to a modelling from Cornwall Insight's North West Europe Benchmark Power Curve.

In 2021, the government agreed to phase out coal by 2030, eight years earlier than the original target set out in the Coal Phase-out Act.

The government initially intended to transition away from coal through a combination of renewable energy expansion and new gas-fired power plants. These plants, which would eventually switch to hydrogen, aimed to provide up to 25 GW of capacity. However, budget constraints have put this strategy on hold, leaving a critical gap in the plan.

The sanctions on Russian gas imports have added to the issues, with Germany needing to re-fire 8 GW of coal and lignite powered plants to compensate for the loss of gas capacity.

(Writing by Rebecca Liu  Editing by Harry Huo)
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