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The global coal trade is undergoing a significant transformation from traditionally concentrating in the Pacific and Atlantic basins to the Indian Ocean, driven by increasing demand in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, as noted in the International Energy Agency's Coal 2023 report.
In contrast, Europe's coal demand is declining, leading to a notable shift in global coal consumption, production, and trade patterns toward the east.
According to the report, global coal trade is expected to decline by approximately 12% by 2026, due to growing domestic production in coal-intensive economies like China and India, as well as coal phase-out plans in Europe.
Coal consumption worldwide in 2026 is anticipated to fall 2.3% from that in 2023, the IEA said.
China, consuming and also producing more than half of the world's coal, has been emerging as the largest importer, holding nearly one-third of the global coal trade.
However, India and ASEAN countries are exerting a growing influence, contributing to the gradual shift of the coal market toward Asia. By 2026, China and India are projected to account for over 70% of global coal consumption, highlighting the contrasting trends with the EU and the US, the IEA said.
The report forecasts a peak in global thermal coal imports in 2023, followed by a decline through 2026, showcasing the overall decrease in global demand. China will lead this decline with a substantial 31% reduction in imports, while India, Japan, and the EU will also contribute to it.
The IEA predicts the seaborne thermal coal exports to surpass the 2019 record in 2023, driven by increased trade in the Pacific Basin, while total thermal coal exports to drop notably to 941 million tonnes in 2026 from the 2020 level during the COVID-19.
Indonesia is projected to face the steepest decrease of 21% in exports, followed by Australia with a 12% fall.
In 2023, global coal exports are forecast to hit a record high of 1,466 million tonnes, with the Asia Pacific region receiving around 83% of imports. China and India will constitute a combined 47% of global imports, solidifying their positions.
The IEA's projections for 2023 indicate a decline in coal use in advanced economies due to weak industrial output, improved efficiency, and fuel switching but expect coal demand to continue in emerging and developing economies for robust economic growth despite commitments to renewables and low-emissions technologies.
The agency stated that uncertainties remain in the future of global coal consumption.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Emma Yang)
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