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Australia's metallurgical coal exports are predicted to increase 9.6% year on year from an estimated 157 million tonnes in fiscal year 2022-23 (July 2022-June 2023) to 172 million tonnes in FY2023-24, thanks to the opening of several new mines, according to a quarterly report on October 3.
Exports of the steelmaking material are forecast to remain stable at 172 million tonnes in FY2024-25, showed data in the latest Resources and energy quarterly (REQ) released by Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
The value of Australia's metallurgical coal exports, however, is expected to fall from A$62 billion in FY2022-23 to A$47.2 billion in FY2023-24 before further declining to A$41 billion in FY2024-25 as coal prices has been decreasing.
Global demand for metallurgical coal remained steady during the July-September quarter. World markets have shown signs of stabilization, with demand being adequately met by a more consistent supply due to the easing of weather disruptions that occurred after the end of the La Nina weather phenomenon, which had previously impacted coal production in Australia.
With weather and the COVID-19 disruptions finally alleviating, Australia's metallurgical coal output firmed up and then began to grow. Looking ahead, the country's met coal production is projected to increase from 168 million tonnes in FY2022-23 to 178 million tonnes in FY2023-24 and also at 178 million tonnes in FY2024-25, showed the report.
It, however, noted the emerging issue of workforce shortages could potentially limit metallurgical coal production over the outlook period. The scarcity of labor is not only impacting mine sites but also causing difficulties with rail shipments in certain areas of Queensland. If not addressed adequately, this problem is likely to escalate over time.
Both metallurgical and thermal coal producers are facing rising constraints in accessing financial resources, it noted. Banks are increasingly shifting their focus away from coal, including both metallurgical and thermal coal, in favor of renewables and related commodities.
Despite these challenges, production is still anticipated to grow during the outlook period. New mine openings is expected to surpass closures, with metallurgical coal exports showing a stronger trajectory compared to thermal coal, the report said. This makes Australia favorably meet the demand from emerging steel markets in the region, including India.
Upcoming mining projects include the Maxwell and Vickery mines in New South Wales, as well as the Burton, North Goonyella, Hillalong, Wilton Fairhill, and Olive Downs projects in Queensland, according to the report.
Sojitz Blue has also obtained approval for the expansion of its Gregory Crinum open-cut coal mine, potentially allowing it to operate for another 50 years, it added.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Harry Huo)
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