中文
European thermal coal imports are expected to reach the highest level in eight months in December as power generators has built up stocks in anticipation of a potential winter demand surge, according to preliminary estimates by Montel.
Excluding Turkey and Russia, European countries are projected to import a total 3.1 million tonnes of coal this month, rising about 0.4 million tonnes from November and the highest since April, according to Kpler's cargo tracking data.
The Netherlands, home to major import hubs in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, is predicted to import 1.6 million tonnes during the given period, an increase of 0.2 million tonnes from the previous month.
Spain is set to become the second-largest importer, with an estimated intake of around 0.42 million tonnes, followed by Germany's almost 0.3 million tonnes.
Snapping the warmer-than-usual weather in November, Europe witnessed a sudden cold spell in early December, driving up demand for thermal coal, according to Alexis Ellender, the lead major dry bulk analyst at Kpler.
He added the ebbing stocks at ports in northern Europe created opportunities for new arrivals, and lower thermal coal prices in November may have encouraged some opportunistic buying.
Coal inventory in the ARA region (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp) was estimated to be at a three-week low of 5.6 million tonnes this week, as per Montel estimates.
This level remained above the five-year average of 5.5 million tonnes, despite widespread closures of coal-based power plants during this period.
Overall coal supply remained adequate, and gas supply was also abundant, thereby putting pressure on coal prices, said a coal trader from a German power company.
The API 2 front-month coal contract, reflecting coal for delivery in northwestern Europe, has averaged $115/t so far this month, slightly down from $117/t in the previous month, as showed by ICE Futures.
However, one trader from a Switzerland-based coal trading house expressed caution about potential price fluctuations in winter, mentioning a possible $10/t increase once the cold weather sets in. He suggested that a more pronounced bearish trend might only emerge in January after the initial weeks of winter have passed.
Despite the monthly increase, the import estimate for December remains 56% lower compared to the same period last year, as forecast by Kpler. Ellender noted the lukewarm outlook of thermal coal demand due to milder European weather and exceptionally high gas stocks.
Last winter, in contrast with this year's ample supply, European buyers were concerned about potential supply shortages following the imposition of sanctions on Russian coal exports in response to the conflict in Ukraine, starting in August 2022.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Emma Yang)
For any questions, please contact us by inquiry@fwenergy.com or +86-351-7219322.
