Coal output in the United States is projected to decline 14.34% from a year ago for 2024, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on January 9.
The output is predicted to decline from 581.7 million short tons in 2023 to 489.3 million short tons (443.89 million tonnes) in 2024, before falling another 17.27% year on year to 428.8 million short tonnes in 2025, the report said.
In terms of consumption, the report expected U.S. coal consumption to drop from 424.3 million short tons in 2023 to 391.3 million short tons in 2024, up 1.6% from the previous month's anticipation. Coal consumption in the power sector is forecast to slide 8.36% year on year to 351.9 million short tons, while consumption in retail and other industries is anticipated to be 22.3 million short tons, down 8.23% YoY.
In 2025, U.S. coal consumption is expected to be 361.7 million short tons, down 7.56% YoY. The electricity sector will consume 322.2 million short tons of coal, which would be an all-time low if realized, while the retail and other industries will use 21.8 million short tons.
The report also said that US energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2024 are projected to be steady from a year earlier. Specifically, CO2 emissions related to coal combustion will decrease 5.48% on the year. In 2025, energy-related CO2 emissions are forecast to decline 1.61% compared to the preceding year.
Regarding exports, the report revealed that US coal exports in 2024 are estimated to reach 91.0 million short tons, indicating a 9% increase from 2023. Exports of thermal coal are projected to be 41.7 million short tons, down 15.42% year on year, while metallurgical coal exports are expected to reach 49.3 million short tons, a decrease of 2.76% YoY.
U.S. coal exports are forecast to reach 95.4 million short tons in 2025, showing a 4.84% rise compared to the previous year. Thermal coal exports are projected to be 44.7 million short tons, while metallurgical coal exports are estimated to reach 50.7 million short tons.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Emma Yang)
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